SMF Analysis Highlights Public Backing for Higher Taxes on Fixed-Odds Betting Terminals

The Social Market Foundation released polling data and accompanying analysis on 29 June 2026 that shows 43 percent of the public supports doubling Machine Games Duty from its current 20 percent rate to 40 percent when applied to Category B machines offering £2 spins. Those machines operate inside adult gaming centres and casinos, adn the thinktank estimates the change could deliver between £275 million and £458 million in additional annual revenue on top of the £600 million already collected from the sector. The figures come at a moment when political figures including Andy Burnham have previously voiced concerns about the concentration of such terminals in high-street locations.

Details of the Proposed Duty Increase

Category B machines, often described in industry shorthand as fixed-odds betting terminals, sit at the centre of the SMF figures. Current rules set the duty at 20 percent of gross gaming yield, yet the polling indicates majority support among respondents for lifting that rate to 40 percent specifically on the £2-stake versions found in adult gaming centres and casinos. Lower-stake machines located inside pubs would remain untouched under the proposal, creating a clear distinction between venue types. Revenue projections range from £275 million to £458 million extra each year, depending on how player behaviour adjusts after any rate change takes effect.

Political Context and Potential Timing

Andy Burnham has previously criticised the placement and density of high-stake machines in certain communities, and the SMF report references that record as one possible route for policy movement. Should Burnham assume the role of prime minister, the analysis suggests the polling numbers could provide a basis for legislative action during the 2026 parliamentary session. The report does not claim any formal commitment from Burnham or his team, yet it places the duty increase within a broader discussion of local-authority powers and national taxation tools already under review.

Scope and Limitations of the Polling

The SMF survey captured views across a nationally representative sample, with the 43 percent support figure standing as the headline result for the specific duty rise. Observers note that the question focused narrowly on Category B £2 machines inside adult gaming centres and casinos, while separate questions addressed machines in pubs and lower-stake terminals. The report presents the data without claiming universal consensus, instead framing the numbers as one indicator among several that policymakers might weigh when considering fiscal adjustments in the gambling sector.

Revenue Estimates and Sector Impact

Current Machine Games Duty receipts from the targeted machines total approximately £600 million annually. The SMF model applies the proposed 40 percent rate and factors in possible reductions in play volume or shifts toward other gambling products, producing the £275 million to £458 million range. Those calculations remain sensitive to assumptions about player elasticity and venue profitability, both of which the report flags as areas requiring further monitoring should any rate change occur. Adult gaming centres and casinos would face the direct duty increase, whereas pubs operating lower-stake terminals would continue under the existing 20 percent structure.

August 2026 Developments

By August 2026 the SMF findings had begun to circulate among local councils and licensing authorities already examining cumulative impact assessments for gambling premises. Several authorities cited the polling numbers when updating their statements of gambling policy, though no formal Treasury consultation on the duty rate had been announced at that stage. Industry bodies responded by commissioning their own economic modelling, while harm-reduction organisations referenced the same 43 percent figure in submissions to parliamentary committees scheduled for the autumn.

Distinctions Between Venue Types

The proposal explicitly separates high-street adult gaming centres from pubs that host lower-stake machines. This distinction reflects differences in machine categories, stake limits and typical customer profiles, according to the SMF breakdown. Category B terminals in AGCs and casinos permit £2 spins and fall under the higher proposed duty band, while pub machines remain at lower stake thresholds and retain the current duty rate. The report presents this split as a deliberate design choice aimed at concentrating any fiscal change on the higher-stake segment.

Conclusion

The Social Market Foundation’s June 2026 release supplies concrete polling numbers and revenue projections tied to a single proposed adjustment in Machine Games Duty. The 43 percent support level, the £275 million–£458 million range and the exclusion of pub-based terminals together form the core factual content of the analysis. Those elements continue to inform discussions among policymakers, local authorities and sector representatives as the 2026 calendar advances.